AGP Executive Report

Pacific climate diplomacy: Australia’s $50m climate summit in Fiji—aimed at keeping global attention on rising seas—raises the big question: will Pacific leaders and partners actually turn up, given past tensions over fossil fuels. Maritime surveillance: FFA’s Operation Island Chief 2026 flagged 16 vessels of interest and apprehended four, after two weeks of aerial and surface monitoring across 27.5 million sq km and 3,000+ fishing vessels, including Tuvalu among 11 participating members. Just transition and rights: Human rights groups urge Tuvalu and Ireland to make human rights a concrete, enforceable part of the second “Transitioning Away From Fossil Fuels” conference—not just a stated principle. Safer Pacific digital rules: Pacific foreign ministers back regional AI principles and a safer digital spaces approach as connectivity expands undersea cable coverage. Water stress from El Niño: Fiji and Papua New Guinea brace for drier months, with Fiji warning of “drastic measures” and PNG preparing for partial water shutdowns. Pacific research boost: University of Auckland and SPC sign an MoU to expand Pacific-led research in climate resilience, ocean governance, health, and education. Ocean protection in Samoa: Pristine Seas arrives for an MPA network survey using deep-sea cameras, submersibles, and local-led science. AI in law: A separate report warns AI-written legal filings are flooding courts, adding pressure to already strained justice systems.

Climate & Borders: A new report warns that climate change, separatist pressure, conflict and governance gaps could reshape the world map by 2076, with sea-level exposure putting places like Tuvalu and the Maldives in the spotlight. Tuvalu-Japan Diplomacy: Tuvalu’s PM Feleti Teo invites Japan’s PM to attend the Pre-COP31 Leaders’ Event in Funafuti, aiming to boost cooperation on climate change, resilience and climate finance. Pacific AI Governance: Pacific Islands Forum foreign ministers back regional AI rules and safer digital spaces, including principles for an AI governance framework and a phased approach to reduce harms from social media. Just Transition & Rights: Civil society groups urge Tuvalu and Ireland to ensure the fossil-fuel phase-out is grounded in human rights, not just promises. El Niño Water Stress: El Niño is already tightening water and food supplies, with Fiji preparing contingency measures and Papua New Guinea planning repairs that may trigger partial water shutdowns. Tuvalu in the Tech/Research Orbit: Taiwan ICDF highlights programs supplying fresh produce to Tuvalu schools, alongside broader digital and climate-resilience support. Ocean Science in Samoa: Pristine Seas brings deep-sea surveys and local partnerships to Samoa to map marine life and strengthen ocean protection. Shipping Emissions Policy: IMO talks on a net-zero framework could change carbon costs for fleets, with Tuvalu named among stakeholders pushing for tougher pricing. U.N. Peacekeeping: Tuvalu deploys its first police officers to a U.N. peacekeeping mission. Regional Research Partnership: University of Auckland and SPC formalise a partnership to expand Pacific-led research in climate resilience, ocean governance and public health.

Climate & Borders: A new report warns that rising seas, separatist pressures, conflict and governance stress could reshape the world map by 2076, with low-lying island states like Tuvalu and the Maldives facing the hardest “what happens when land defines the state” question. Tuvalu–Japan Diplomacy: Tuvalu’s PM Feleti Teo invited Japan’s PM to attend Tuvalu’s Pre-COP31 Leaders’ Event in October, focusing on climate change, resilience, climate finance, and regional peace and security. Pacific AI Rules: Pacific Islands Forum foreign ministers backed regional principles for AI and safer digital spaces, aiming to feed into an AI governance framework and build capacity before leaders consider it in 2027. Just Transition Rights: Human rights groups urged Tuvalu and Ireland to ensure the fossil-fuel phase-out is implemented as a rights-based “just transition,” not just a promise on paper. El Niño Water Stress: El Niño is already tightening water and food supplies across the Pacific, with Fiji preparing contingency measures and Papua New Guinea planning repairs that may trigger a partial water shutdown. Ocean Science in Samoa: Pristine Seas’ Samoa expedition is set to survey deep-sea life using cameras, submersibles, and environmental DNA sampling—built around local partnerships. Shipping Emissions at IMO: Negotiations over the IMO’s Net-Zero Framework could sharply change carbon costs for fleets, with Tuvalu pushing for stronger remedial pricing. U.S. Visa Bond Shock: The U.S. made its visa bond program permanent for 50 countries, but travel groups warn it may slash tourism by making visas harder to get.

Climate & borders: A new report warns that climate change, separatism, conflict and governance stress could reshape national borders by 2076, with low-lying island states like Tuvalu and the Maldives facing the hardest “what happens when people can’t live on the land” question. Tuvalu-Japan diplomacy: Tuvalu’s PM Feleti Teo invited Japan’s PM Sanae Takaichi to attend Tuvalu’s Pre-COP31 Leaders’ Event, aiming to deepen cooperation on climate change, resilience and climate finance. Human rights in the fossil-fuel transition: Rights groups urged Tuvalu and Ireland to ensure the “just transition” for the 2nd Transitioning Away From Fossil Fuels Conference is grounded in real human-rights implementation, not just recognition. Pacific AI rules: Pacific Islands Forum foreign ministers backed regional principles for AI and safer digital spaces, plus an AI governance framework and phased approach to safer online environments. El Niño pressure on water: El Niño is already stressing water and food supplies, with Fiji activating dry-weather plans and Papua New Guinea preparing for partial water shutdowns. Tuvalu in the wider tech-and-policy orbit: The week also highlighted how global shipping carbon rules at the IMO could affect Tuvalu’s climate priorities and costs for the wider Pacific shipping ecosystem.

Tuvalu-Japan Climate Diplomacy: Prime Minister Feleti Teo invited Japan’s PM Sanae Takaichi to attend Tuvalu’s Pre-COP31 Leaders’ Event in October, with talks in Funafuti also covering climate change, resilience, climate finance, and wider regional cooperation. Pacific AI Governance: Pacific Islands Forum foreign ministers backed regional principles for AI and safer digital spaces, supporting a Pacific AI Governance Framework and a phased Pacific Regional Approach to Safer Digital Spaces as connectivity expands. Human Rights in Fossil-Fuel Transition: Civil society groups urged Tuvalu and Ireland to ensure the “just transition” to cleaner energy includes real human-rights implementation, not just recognition, ahead of the 2nd Transitioning Away From Fossil Fuels Conference in Tuvalu. Shipping Emissions Decision: Negotiations at the IMO over the Net-Zero Framework are heating up, with governments weighing whether to keep, amend, or replace the April 2025 plan that uses emissions pricing and a Net-Zero Fund. El Niño Water Pressure: El Niño is already stressing water and food supplies across the Pacific, with Fiji warning of possible “drastic measures” and Papua New Guinea preparing for a partial water shutdown in Port Moresby. Samoa Ocean Survey: Pristine Seas has landed in Samoa for an MPA network survey using SCUBA work, deep-sea cameras, and local-led ocean stewardship to map biodiversity and support protection.

Tuvalu in the spotlight for just transition: Human rights groups say Tuvalu and Ireland’s 2nd Transitioning Away From Fossil Fuels Conference must move beyond promises and ensure rights are actually implemented, with protections for environmental defenders built into the “just transition.” Pacific AI and safer digital spaces: Pacific Islands Forum foreign ministers backed regional principles for AI and a safer digital environment, plus an AI governance framework to be tested before leaders consider it in 2027. Tuvalu-linked climate finance push: Forum foreign ministers endorsed a stronger climate action push ahead of COP31, backing climate finance, renewables, and Pacific-led Pre-COP31 meetings. El Niño hits Pacific water and food: Strong El Niño is already stressing supplies, with Fiji warning of “drastic measures” if dry conditions continue and Papua New Guinea preparing for water disruptions. Shipping decarbonisation decision time: Tuvalu is among countries pressing for tougher IMO Net-Zero Framework terms, including higher remedial unit pricing, as governments debate whether to strengthen, amend, or replace the deal. Research and ocean protection in the region: Pristine Seas begins a Samoa survey to support new marine protected areas, using deep-sea cameras and local partnerships to build biodiversity baselines. Tech-for-development diplomacy: Taiwan ICDF marked its 30th anniversary with a book launch, highlighting projects that include smart healthcare, green energy, and fresh-produce programs for Tuvalu.

Pacific AI & Digital Safety: Pacific Foreign Ministers backed new regional principles for AI and safer digital spaces, with a governance framework to be tested before leaders consider it in 2027, plus a phased Pacific approach to safer social media and capacity-building. Tuvalu in the Climate Talks: Tuvalu is pushing hard at the IMO over shipping’s Net-Zero Framework, proposing higher remedial unit prices and changes to the step-down path—aiming for more funding for zero-emission fuels, but with big cost implications. Climate–Peace Shift: A new Pacific policy brief argues the region should move from a “climate–conflict” focus to a climate–peace approach grounded in social cohesion, culture, and ecological stewardship. Climate Finance Push for COP31: Foreign ministers endorsed stronger regional climate action ahead of COP31, backing renewable investment, climate finance access, and Pacific leadership via Pre-COP31 meetings. El Niño Water Stress: El Niño is already pressuring water and food supplies, with Fiji warning of “drastic measures” and PNG preparing for partial water shutdowns. Research & Ocean Protection: Samoa’s Pristine Seas expedition is surveying biodiversity across new marine protected areas to build a scientific baseline for ocean stewardship. Local Tech Partnerships: The University of Auckland and SPC formalised a partnership to expand Pacific-led research in climate resilience, ocean governance, public health, and education. Tourism Policy Shock: The US visa bond program is now permanent for 50 countries, and travel groups warn it could sharply reduce travel if expanded further.

Tuvalu & Shipping Climate Rules: Pacific island states are pushing hard at the IMO as governments debate the Net-Zero Framework’s future, with Tuvalu backing stricter net-zero steps and higher compliance costs while arguing the transition must be funded fairly via the IMO Net-Zero Fund. Pacific Climate Security: A new Pacific policy brief urges moving from a “climate-conflict” framing to a climate–peace approach rooted in social cohesion, culture, and ecological stewardship. El Niño Water Stress: El Niño is already biting—Fiji warns of possible “drastic measures” as rainfall stays below normal, while Papua New Guinea prepares for a partial water shutdown in Port Moresby. Science for Adaptation: Fiji’s environment minister highlights Pacific Community science work ahead of Pre-COP31/COP31, including ocean, fisheries, crops, geoscience, and tools showing sea-level impacts for Tuvalu. Samoa Ocean Research: Pristine Seas begins a Samoa expedition to survey biodiversity across new marine protected areas, using cameras, submersibles, and environmental DNA. Regional Tech & Research Links: The University of Auckland and SPC formalize a partnership to expand Pacific-led research and training across climate resilience, ocean governance, public health, and sustainable development. Tuvalu UN Peacekeeping: Tuvalu deploys its first police officers to a UN peacekeeping mission. Global Tech Note (Not Tuvalu-focused): The US makes its visa bond program permanent for 50 countries, but travel groups warn it could sharply reduce travel if expanded further.

IMO Net-Zero Framework: Governments head back to IMO talks next month, with shipping policy groups warning that reopening the Net-Zero deal could weaken climate rules just as disasters pile up. Pacific Climate–Peace Nexus: A new Pacific policy brief argues the region should move from a “climate-conflict” framing to approaches rooted in social cohesion, culture, and ecological stewardship. Pre-COP31 Push: Forum foreign ministers backed stronger regional climate action ahead of COP31, calling for more finance, renewables investment, and Pacific leadership. Tuvalu at IMO: Tuvalu and other Pacific states argue the IMO Net-Zero Fund is a “functional requirement” for a fair transition, while Tuvalu’s proposal would raise compliance costs and reshape how payments flow. El Niño Impacts: Fiji and Papua New Guinea are preparing for drier months, with Fiji warning of possible drastic water measures and PNG planning a partial Port Moresby water shutdown. Samoa Ocean Science: National Geographic Pristine Seas begins a Samoa expedition to survey biodiversity across new marine protected areas, aiming to strengthen ocean protection plans with local partnerships. Fiji Climate Science for Policy: Fiji’s environment minister highlights how Pacific science and technical support are feeding Pre-COP31 and COP31 decisions, including sea-level modelling for Tuvalu. U.N. Peacekeeping: Tuvalu deploys its first police officers to a U.N. peacekeeping mission. SPC + University Research Link: The University of Auckland and SPC formalised a partnership to expand Pacific-led research in areas like climate resilience, ocean governance, and public health.

IMO Net-Zero Framework: Governments next month face a make-or-break choice on whether to keep the IMO’s Net-Zero Framework for shipping or reopen years of talks, with Tuvalu pushing for tougher compliance costs and Pacific states arguing the Net-Zero Fund is essential for a fair transition. Climate–Peace in the Pacific: A new Pacific policy brief urges moving from a “climate-conflict” lens to a climate–peace approach rooted in social cohesion, culture, and ecological stewardship. COP31 Push: Forum foreign ministers back stronger regional climate action ahead of COP31, highlighting climate finance, renewables, and Pacific leadership through Pre-COP meetings. El Niño Impacts: Fiji braces for drier months and possible “drastic measures” as water contingency plans activate, while PNG prepares for a partial water shutdown in Port Moresby. Tuvalu–Australia Migration Tech/Policy: Australia’s climate visa ballot shows huge demand from Tuvalu, with 82% of the population registering—raising urgent questions as seas rise. Samoa Ocean Science: Pristine Seas begins a Samoa expedition to survey biodiversity across new marine protected areas, using deep-sea cameras and environmental DNA to build a baseline for ocean protection. Pacific Research Partnerships: The University of Auckland and SPC formalize a partnership to expand Pacific-led research in climate resilience, ocean governance, public health, and more. Tuvalu Shipping Policy Signal: Tuvalu’s proposal for IMO MEPC 85 would keep base targets but raise remedial unit prices and shift how compliance is balanced via the Net-Zero Fund.

Climate–peace policy: A new Pacific Islands Forum/UNDP brief argues the region should move from a “climate–conflict” framing to a climate–peace nexus built on social cohesion, cultural continuity, relational security and ecological stewardship. COP31 push: Forum foreign ministers backed a stronger regional climate push ahead of COP31, calling for more climate finance, renewables investment, and Pacific leadership at Pre-COP31 meetings. Tuvalu and UN peacekeeping: Tuvalu has deployed its first police officers to a U.N. peacekeeping mission, a notable step for regional security capacity. Pacific research boost: The University of Auckland and SPC signed an MoU to expand Pacific-led research and student pathways in climate resilience, ocean governance, public health and more. El Niño impacts: El Niño is already stressing water and food supplies, with Fiji warning of “drastic measures” and PNG preparing for a Port Moresby water shutdown. Samoa ocean science: Pristine Seas is surveying Samoa’s new marine protected areas using deep-sea cameras, submersibles and environmental DNA. Shipping decarbonisation: Tuvalu is pushing tougher IMO net-zero rules, including higher compliance costs, while Pacific states argue the IMO Net-Zero Fund is essential for a fair transition. Tuvalu climate visa: Over 80% of Tuvalu’s population registered for Australia’s climate visa ballot, highlighting mounting displacement pressure.

Climate & Water Security: El Niño is tightening its grip across the Pacific, with Fiji warning of below-normal rainfall through year-end and possible “drastic measures,” while Papua New Guinea prepares for a partial Port Moresby water shutdown due to a leaking pipeline. Ocean Science & Protection: Samoa’s new marine protected areas are getting a major biodiversity survey from National Geographic Pristine Seas, using scuba work, deep-sea cameras, seabird checks, and environmental DNA to build a baseline for protecting 30% of the ocean. Shipping Decarbonisation (IMO): Tuvalu is pushing tougher IMO net-zero rules, including higher compliance costs and a shift in how remedial units and the Net-Zero Fund would balance emissions pricing—while Pacific states argue the IMO Net-Zero Fund is essential for a fair transition. Tuvalu Migration Tech/Policy: More than 80% of Tuvalu’s population has registered for Australia’s climate visa pathway, with 280 visas offered this year—highlighting how fast climate policy is turning into real-world movement planning. Regional Tech for Resilience: Fiji is training solar PV “scholars” to keep systems running during outages, and SPREP is running GIS training across Pacific states to improve environmental data management for climate, biodiversity, and pollution action. Pacific Climate Diplomacy: World leaders are being urged to attend Pre-COP31 in Nadi so they can see climate impacts firsthand, including planned leader visits to Tuvalu.

El Niño Water Stress: Fiji and Papua New Guinea are bracing for worsening dry conditions as a strengthening El Niño threatens below-normal rainfall, with Fiji activating dry-weather contingency plans and PNG preparing a partial Port Moresby water shutdown for pipeline repairs. Pacific Ocean Science: Samoa’s Pristine Seas expedition is surveying biodiversity across new marine protected areas using deep-sea cameras, sonar, and environmental DNA to build a baseline for ocean stewardship. Shipping Decarbonisation Pressure: Tuvalu is pushing tougher IMO net-zero rules—keeping fuel intensity targets but raising compliance costs and relying on the Net-Zero Fund—while Pacific states argue the IMO Net-Zero Fund is essential for a just transition. Tuvalu Climate Migration Demand: Over 80% of Tuvalu’s population has registered for Australia’s climate visa ballot, with only 280 visas offered this year. GIS for the Triple Crisis: Pacific geospatial and environmental professionals met in Nadi to boost GIS and environmental data management skills to tackle biodiversity loss, climate change, and pollution. Energy Skills on the Ground: Fiji Solar Scholars trained community leaders and installed a solar PV system at FCOSS to keep disaster coordination running during power outages.

Shipping & Climate Policy: Cyprus and Greece’s shipping firms are watching the IMO’s next talks on global carbon pricing, where rival proposals could mean anything from no direct GHG charge to a Tier 1 compliance price up to $300 per tonne—raising fears of overlapping costs with EU rules. Tuvalu Leads on IMO Net-Zero: Tuvalu is pushing the IMO Net-Zero Framework in a tougher direction—keeping base reduction targets, dropping a 2028 step, and tripling Tier 1 remedial unit prices to $300/mtCO2e, with balancing via the IMO Net Zero Fund. Tuvalu Climate Migration Demand: More than 80% of Tuvalu’s population has registered for Australia’s climate visa ballot, with only 280 visas offered—highlighting how fast sea-level risk is turning into real relocation pressure. Pacific Ocean Science: Samoa is getting a biodiversity baseline boost as National Geographic Pristine Seas surveys new marine protected areas, supporting its plan to protect 30% of ocean waters. GIS for Environment Action: GIS and spatial practitioners from across the Pacific trained in Nadi, aiming to better manage environmental data for climate, biodiversity, and pollution decisions. Solar for Disaster Response (Fiji): Fiji Solar Scholars installed a solar PV system at FCOSS to keep disaster coordination running during power outages and cut electricity costs.

Tuvalu Climate Migration: Official figures show 82% of Tuvalu’s population (8,750 registrations) applied for Australia’s “world-first” climate visa, with only 280 visas offered this programme year—raising urgent questions as sea-level threats intensify. Shipping Decarbonisation: At the IMO MEPC 85 process, Tuvalu backs stricter net-zero rules—keeping base fuel-intensity targets but changing the 2028 step and proposing higher remedial unit prices to fund zero-emission fuels via the IMO Net-Zero Fund. Pacific Ocean Science: Samoa is hosting a National Geographic Pristine Seas expedition to survey biodiversity across new marine protected areas, aiming to build the scientific baseline for protecting 30% of its ocean. Climate Science for Policy: Fiji’s environment minister highlighted how Pacific Community science—plus tools like sea-level rise models for Tuvalu—is shaping resilience planning ahead of Pre-COP31/COP31. Solar for Disaster Response (Fiji): Fiji Solar Scholars trained staff and installed a solar PV system at FCOSS to keep civil society disaster coordination running during power outages. GIS Skills for the Region: SPREP-backed training in GIS and environmental data management brought together geospatial professionals from across the Pacific, including Tuvalu, to support action on climate, pollution, and biodiversity loss.

Tuvalu Climate Migration: More than 80% of Tuvaluans (8,750 registrations; 82% of the 10,643 population) have applied for Australia’s “first of its kind” climate visa, but with only 280 visas offered this year, many will miss out—raising stakes as scientists warn parts of Tuvalu could become uninhabitable within decades. Shipping Decarbonisation: Pacific states are pushing hard at the IMO: six countries including Tuvalu and Fiji call the IMO Net-Zero Fund a “functional requirement” for mid-term shipping cuts, while Tuvalu’s proposal would keep base fuel-intensity targets but change the 2028 step and ramp up remedial unit pricing to fund zero-emission fuels. Ocean Science for Protection: Samoa is hosting National Geographic Pristine Seas to survey biodiversity across newly protected marine areas, aiming to build the scientific baseline for managing 30% of its ocean. GIS for Climate Action: SPREP convened GIS and spatial practitioners across the Pacific (including Tuvalu) to strengthen environmental data management and decision-making for the region’s climate, pollution, and biodiversity crisis. Solar Resilience Training: Fiji Solar Scholars installed a solar PV system at the Fiji Council of Social Services to keep disaster coordination running during power cuts and reduce electricity costs. Pacific Climate Diplomacy: Fiji’s environment minister highlighted how climate science and ocean/fisheries/agriculture research are supporting Pacific positions ahead of pre-COP31 and COP31.